Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Election: My predictions.

My “day of” Predictions for the Election. I’ll be liveblogging this.

In 2 hours, approximately, polls close in parts of New Hampshire, lots of Kentucky and lots of Indiana.

Indiana, the crossroads state, the “South of the North” if you will… is sort of a conundrum. I always know when I’ve crossed the border between Michigan and Indiana. Country music infiltrates stores and gas station. Drawls and drawn out syllabic stresses leak out of people’s mouths. And “yee haws” spring up randomly from large enough crowds. Pollsters have Indiana listed as a “swing state”, however it has voted Republican in the last 10 elections. Gary and Indianapolis will definitely go blue, but given our electoral college system, I suspect that Obama won’t be able to take enough from the otherwise massive landmass occupied by the rural poor who, paradoxically, consistently vote for the candidate that is least likely to help them. I’m going to predict that McCain will take the state.

I think recent polling has Kentucky pegged Republican. I think that the 6-7% undecided voters will likely split down the middle. Some polling shows many of these undecided as already setting up camp with McCain.

New Hampshire will go with Obama. The reason I think this is because if we look at their history, they have aligned with the more charismatic candidates in the election. Also, NH voted democrat in 2004, obviously sick of Bush policies. With McCains alignment with the GOP home base, he’s consequently “aligned” with Bush. This will play against him. Cheney’s endorsement of McCain can’t help him, either… honestly I don’t see how Cheney endorsing anything would help…

At 6:00, Obama will have 4 electoral votes and McCain 19.

At 7:00 we’ll find out if I’m right about NH, KY, and IN. Polls start closing at Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and Virginia.

I don’t think we’ll see too many surprises. Here’s my prediction:

Georgia will go Republican.

South Carolina showed some promise for Obama in preliminary polling. But more recent polling has shown the gap to close and McCain to take a slight lead. I’m not very confident about my predictions in this state, but seeing as they voted Bush in ’04, I don’t think the southern conservative nature of the state will turn it Red on the election maps after the polls close.

Florida is definitely a swing. Palm Beach, Miami, and most of the southeastern state are typically democrat. However, I’m confident that Obama will take the state despite Florida’s strong conservative constituency in the panhandle and among a large population of elder voters. I think they are going to support Obama’s social policies. Conversely, they could be scared off by comparisons of Obama’s positions to socialism or drawn to the fact that McCain is likely older than they are.
I think today will be the first election in 40 years (the last 10 elections) that Virginia votes Democrat.

So, current count:
Obama has 44 electoral votes, and McCain has 42

A word about “swing states”.
Current polling shows that Obama will win even if he loses the swing states. So some upsets will need to happen for McCain to terrorize my future with fear of his impending death and Palin’s rise to power.

As it stands, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, North Dakota, Montana, and Nevada are “swing” states that I’ve not mentioned yet.

Of these, I think Obama will take Nevada (he won strong in the primaries) and Missouri.

McCain will likely take Montana and North Dakota. These are based on historical best estimates.

That leaves Ohio and North Carolina.

Ohio is a unique state, and fits in a bit of a political crossroad. It has a higher distribution of urban centers than Indiana, which suggests to me that it is more likely to gravitate towards Obama. However, the regions that are Republican are some of the most conservative districts in our country. Ohio voters are aware of their influence and potential to direct elections following 2004. So, there has been a lot of work done by both political parties to gather support in the state. However, even though the gap was closing with recent campaigning by the wildly popular Palin, I think the 1-5% lead by Obama will stick.

Call my optimistic, but I really hope he takes Ohio, that will really suck the life out of McCain’s run.

Virginians haven’t voted Democrat since LBJ… I really feel like the large urban growth and support through local politicians (popular politicians) in the area for Obama will swing it for the Democrats. This would also be a fairly big victory for Obama.

Now, I’m going to take a break until the first results come in and study for Anatomy. Take care, readers!

Update: 7:01 PM.. Looks like the predictions were solid. McCain takes KY and Obama NH. So far, it's almost neck and neck in Indiana, however, Obama is taking some of the rural (and typically Republican) districts. Polling hasn't even closed in the larger population centers.

A final note on the Election:
Obviously I couldn't liveblog as studying comes first for medical students. However, I was pleased to see Obama take a massive victory in this election. I can't help but feel hopeful despite my natural skepticism and cynicism when I hear him speak.

We learned that Virginia can vote Democrat when the man has the degree of character that Obama does.
We learned that young people can go out and vote and actually change the election.
We learned that in Michigan, we support science and research as well as making relatively harmless drugs one step closer to decriminalization.
We learned that there can be a massive voter turnout, overall.
We also learned, importantly, that our country is ready for a man that won not by the "color of his skin but the content of his character."

A happy day for America.

1 comment:

Julia said...

Y'know, I resent the harsh words about crossing the border from MI into IN...